Like most Brits who have made the choice to live life outside of the confines of the British Isles I was shocked and saddened at the result of the UK referendum on EU membership. Since then I’ve encountered many online and offline discussions and even more outright keyboard battles between “Brexiteers” and “Remainers”. It has created schisms and split the country in two because there are those that want change and those that don’t.
One can argue that the UK has always been a reluctant member of the EU and that its heart has never truly been in it. The reasons why go far back to before it joined the EU and its global role in the world. The island, that was once physically attached to northern France and Belgium before a volcanic eruption in Norway caused a tsunami that flooded the eastern part of the country and forged out the English Channel, has kept its physical borders in tact since then. Internally, however, the country, its inhabitants, culture and laws have been created, changed, destroyed and replaced over many centuries of invasions and political intrigues.
However, the political tsunami of Brexit is at risk of causing a rift within the UK and between the EU far larger than that volcanic eruption thousands of years ago. Once Article 50 is triggered later today both the UK and EU will embark on a journey of some spectacular structural changes over the next decade as they move apart but none more so than in the UK. If we compare what has happened during the past nine months and how that journey of change has been managed by the UK government and parliament then Brexit is certainly already turning out to be a real-time case study on how not to manage change.
The British Prime Minister, Theresa May, has announced that once Article 50 is triggered then the whole country must unite for it to be a success. As I find myself on the resistance side of the debate I thought I’d put the events of the last nine months into an ADKAR change model and see why her appeal to unite the country during a time of extreme change hasn’t got off to a flying start:
From <https://www.prosci.com/adkar/adkar-model>
“Awareness of the business reasons for change. Awareness is the goal/outcome of early communications related to an organizational change”
The case for change made by the government was a shaky one to the begin with. In fact, the question put to the electorate in the referendum was a simple In-Out vote. No one actually knew what the change outcome would be. Access to objective information was not available from an early point. Lies were peddled and misinformation was spread at an alarming rate. Already at the Awareness stage people didn’t really know what they were voting for so people made up their own cases for change, on both sides of the argument. Catastrophic events like the refugee crisis and a failing NHS was used to try and sway voter opinions. Furthermore, a total unawareness of how complicated the UK/EU relationship among those deciding on the change laid the way for certain leaders to push their own agendas. Not only that but once the result was in, and effectively decided by a minority, the leaders that started the change process suddenly dropped out one by one. A new leader came in who actually campaigned for the other side of the vote: to remain. She now finds herself on the other side trying to lead the Brexit negotiations. Understandably her leadership credibility is extremely low among those she now has to convince that the change is something positive for everyone, which leads us on to the next stage.
“Desire to engage and participate in the change. Desire is the goal/outcome of sponsorship and resistance management”
Let’s first look at the motivators for participating in change:
- Likelihood of gain or achievement (incentive)
- Fear of consequence (risk or penalty)
- Desire to be part of something (to belong)
- Willingness to follow a leader you trust
- Alternative is worse
With a minority (37%) of the electorate on the winning side, and with a leader that the majority don’t trust, the majority are unsurprisingly resistant and are still stuck in the Awareness stage. The British Prime Minister is already urging the public to unite and support Brexit but they can’t. Brexiteers have been telling Remainers to accept the result, move on, get over it. Not a good way to win over someone to your side and not a good strategy for increasing people’s desire to belong. This however, has not deterred the PM from ploughing on, hoping to eventually bring the rest of the 63% with her. She has no choice, of course, but neither she, her government nor parliament have successfully managed the Awareness stage at all. The opposition parties have also failed to address concerns at the Awareness stage by supporting a perceived untrustworthy leader, which has added more fuel to the fire. The only desire for change that the Remainers have is to change the path that the government is taking because they think that the alternative is worse. Not only that but the change is not in the interest or values of the Remainers.
“Knowledge about how to change. Knowledge is the goal/outcome of training and coaching”
The Brexit process is currently at the knowledge stage, at least from the government’s perspective. No one knows, except for a select few within government circles, how this change will actually be managed. An attempt by the British Prime Minister in January to lay out an interim framework, or plan, for how the changes will take place was greeted with skepticism (see previous stages). The argument for not being clear on how the change will be managed was that it would give the upper hand to the other EU member states if the UK government showed its hand too early. As the government is further along in the change process than the rest of the population they are at risk of leaving even their supporters behind in the Desire stage.
Furthermore, the negotiations going forward must be concluded within a two-year time frame and there is also a lack of resources who can successfully negotiate enough trade deals with other countries. For as for the past 40 years most negotiations have been conducted via EU channels and competence needs to be ramped up. The amount of resources that will be required to make the changes has been estimated to be in the billions (£). Not only that but there is a counterpart to be negotiated with, namely the 27 other EU member states not to mention the rest of the world with whom the UK now thinks it will do unfettered business. There is much uncertainty surrounding how the EU deal, as well as global trade deals, will be managed and this doesn’t instill confidence in those resisting the change.
“Ability to realize or implement the change at the required performance level. Ability is the goal/outcome of additional coaching, practice and time”
As the UK hasn’t reached this stage in the change process yet it’s impossible to tell how well the changes will be implemented. As those who will be affected by the changes still don’t really know how the changes will affect them, it’s impossible for them to prepare themselves for the change when they still don’t know what that change will entail. It’s also not clear if the changes being made to EU membership will negatively impact those who actually voted for the change, which in itself could create more change management problems for the UK government. Time will tell.
“Reinforcement to ensure change sticks. Reinforcement is the goal/outcome of adoption measurement, corrective action and recognition of successful change”
Again, as the UK hasn’t reached the reinforcement stage yet, and won’t for the next two years, it’s hard to see how reinforcement will be managed.
One can of course only hope that time will enable change for the better and that Brexit success, however that will be defined, will be achieved. But the unclear goals and even shifting goals of Brexit at the Awareness stage have set the precedent for a change that will be more painful than it needs to be and for everyone on both sides of the equation. If the change management process of Brexit is going be a success then the UK government already needs to go back to the Awareness stage and set out even clearer goals and consequences. It will also need to start delivering on the change benefits as soon as possible but as we know, benefits and dis-benefits can take time to manifest themselves, long after the two-year negotiation window ahead. Brexit will be a bumpy ride on both sides of the channel. Let’s hope that the remaining 27 EU members have a better grip on the change management process from their side of the English Channel, before the political tsunami ripples already lapping at their shore turn into waves that engulf their own countries.
